A Snowballs Chance in a Blast Furnace
This post drifts into the partisan arena below the fold. It may contain images that some will find disturbing, or unpleasant.
Everyone ought to read more Yotsuba&!
As compensation for this, here is the very antithesis of partisanship... Yotsuba&! producing less worrisome images.
For those who dare, hit "more" to get on with the politics...
1
Your judgment of her performance in a debate is flawed. You assume Obama has testicles.
Posted by: ubu at Sun Sep 11 00:37:29 2011 (GfCSm)
2
Meh. It isn't just the "establishment" that's turned against Palin, it's also large sections of the commentariat and the upper ends of the base. If Obama is a textbook example of narcissim, Palin's executive performance and recent behavior has begin to resemble that associated with borderline personality disorder. She's left a trail of chaos, polarization, and disorder behind her which is worse than worrisome - it's exhausting. Exhausting isn't what I look for in a leader.
I don't know, she's young yet, by political standards. Maybe a sojourn in the wilderness might give her that "bottom" which a statesman needs. As it is, her lack of organization and tendency to act as a strange attractor is unwelcome.
And I do believe that the Times is suddenly developing Strange New Respect for Palin because they're hoping to maximize Republican entropy in the primary season. A veritable golden apple of division, as it were.
Posted by: Mitch H. at Mon Sep 12 14:40:43 2011 (jwKxK)
Honestly, I think she accomplishes far more as a kingmaker then she could in reaching for the crown herself. In going for the crown, she would have to sell herself, and the venom that is out there for her would be at it's most potent.
She has several things working against her in a presidential run that are muted in her current role:
1. Everything that forced her out of the governorship, she would get 10000x worse as president. Leaving raises a real question about her ability to stay the course in the presidency. If she got the presidency and resigned, she would do enormous damage to the causes she supports. In her current role, the attacks are blunted a lot more.
2. I know a lot of people who have bought into the propaganda that she is dumb and stupid. I don't agree, having looked into her record, but these are ordinary people who are more blinded by the stereotype made of her then I would have thought. She would have to overcome this stereotype while it was being viciously reinforced.
3. She would have to take policy stances that may not always be popular with her base to attract a wider base of support and get elected. This would dilute and weaken her message.
I think she's better and does more where she is then she could in running. Personally, I would respect her walking away from that power more then I would succumbing to it's lures when the odds are so stacked against her.
StargazerA5
Posted by: StargazerA5 at Fri Sep 16 05:36:19 2011 (lZbWj)
4
StargazerS: You make some good points and I don't disagree that she has been very effective for the cause as an advocate, and in rallying the base.
I do share most of your concerns. Note the title of the post.
However, your point 1 is actually non-applicable to the oval office. Unlike the Alaska Governor circa 2009, the president can have a legal defense fund and it is not nearly so easy to throw up utterly fatuous ethics complaints. There is a whole office dedicated to dealing with such matters while allowing presidents to do their jobs. Additionally, it is rare indeed for the POTUS to have to attend a court proceeding and therefore eat into time allotted to executive duties, the latter being a big reason she had to step down.
So performance in the office is not a concern to me.
If she were to jump into the race, I think she'd add quite a bit to the conversation. Gingrich, who has less of a chance than she does certainly has.
The big worry is that (as you say) that she has been so thoroughly defamed that, if she were to get the nomination, the pucker factor leading up to the election would be quite high indeed. I have no doubt she can win the debates handilly, but that might not be enough to overcome preconceived notions or the visceral class bigotry I've seen directed at her.
OTOH, she is despised by the K-Street establishment types of both parties. This is tactically a complication, but from a civics perspective strikes me as a feature and not a bug. It feeds into that aforementioned slim chance that she could actually unify a broad coalition if she could get her message out. I additionally think that occasionally electing someone who hails from a background far removed from the Ivy's is good for the republic, not only because of the very real notion that such credentialism is becoming a sort of aristocracy, but because those few colleges seem to have a disturbing homogeneity in their worldview that is quite dismissive of the concerns of the citizenry as a whole and seems to limit their options. Again this is an argument concerned mainly with civics and idealism rather than the long odds it implies. I have a soft spot for the Quixotic.
Posted by: The Brickmuppet at Fri Sep 16 15:13:09 2011 (EJaOX)
A More Pernicious MadnessReuters reports on an EU study that indicates that nearly 40% of Europeans suffer from mental illness. The definition of mental illness in the study seems on one hand to be rather broad, as it includes insomnia and anxiety. On the other hand I don't think the government study is likely to recognize THIS for the madness it is...
At the instigation of a mentally unbalanced bee-keeper, the similarly
unbalanced European Court (EuGH), the highest court in the EUSSR, is
considering whether honeybees are allowed to approach genetically
modified plants and take their pollen. If they are not, then, first, the
resultant honey must be removed from supermarket shelves and burned in a
carbon-neutral fashion. Second, bees will be forbidden to approach
inappropriate blossoms.
OK the translation is imperfect...but damn. Due to hysteria over geneticall modified crops, the EU is going to forbid...the bees...from approaching politically incorrect flowers.
Bee-girl is by Nardak, who had nothing to do with the added text.
Note that being surrounded by such dingalings would seem to indicate that the responses of anxiety and insomnia are actually a sign of sanity.
Seriously, it was a really good exchange. I was surprised.
Despite the focus on Perry and Romney several of the others were quite strong. Perry was not stellar but he gave a credible and solid performance and Romney seemed to hold his own.
Cain did well in previous debates and he has grown as a candidate. This was his best performance ever, with answers that were not only well delivered but remarkable in their specificity.
Thank goodness for Newt...he is not executive material but he is a damned good idea man and these debates are much better for his presence. He actually did hit it out of the park a couple of times. He needs to at least be an adviser in the next administration.
Huntsman came off better than he has before, in that he got to talk, and though he likely did himself no favors with the base its obvious he is a thoughtful guy.
All in all it was one of the better discussions of our problems I've seen.
OTOH the hosts did not cover themselves in glory as they tried (quite unsuccessfully) to start petty fights and in one remarkably patronizing moment, they brought in a Hispanic reporter to ask questions about immigration...and then dismissed him.
1
That's about what I took from it. I was really surprised that Perry wasn't better; he's usually very good in debates. Of course, the opponents he's had to deal with in the past haven't been particularly strong, either. He was obviously prepared to pitch a lot more than catch. Romney definitely controlled the exchanges between himself and Perry.
Would love to see Newt as Chief-of-Staff...think that would fit him to a T.
1
From all accounts there's an ironbound high-pressure Dome of Doom anchored over north Texas and Oklahoma, and nothing short of a major hurricane will budge it. Almost all possible tracks I'm seeing for Nate either follow Lee northwards or do a straight charge towards the Pacific across northern Mexico.
Posted by: Mitch H. at Thu Sep 8 10:01:14 2011 (jwKxK)
Legalities of the Reboot
Brian Wang at Next Big Future has an interesting post on some of the legal reasons behind the Superman Costume changes that are part of the upcoming DC Reboot.
Most interesting to me is this bit from Brian Wang:
The interpretations also seem to be that the Siegel and Shuster families
will be able to start developing movies and other projects with the
portions of copyright that they control starting in 2013.
Their version of Superman would seem to be legally restricted from
developing the powers of flight. They would be forced to stay at the
power levels of Action #1 and the first two weeks of strips. Although
both parties would be free to create new works based on these separate
versions. I think it would be perfectly possible the 1938 Superman to be
made very interesting and vibrant franchise.
Hey kids, I have an idea, why don't you ask your professor about how Facebook and Twitter were used during the Cuban Missile Crisis. I mean they HAD to have had an impact right? You professor will be SO impressed with you.
I have pursued a degree with the careful consideration
of a rabid pit bull with an Ahab complex. It cannot pass any rational
cost benefit analysis. Still I'm far enough in that I'm committed...or
ought to be.
I'm a college dropout myself. I was preparing to go back and finish my degree at one point, when the stock market cratered and I lost my job and my investments at the same time. Never got back to it, so I really admire your perseverence.
2
Twenty-two years after I ran out of money and persuaded the university to start paying me, I am theoretically one class away from an Associates degree in Japanese. It appears that if I transfer my dusty old credits from OSU and my even-dustier AP test scores, I can get out by taking whatever rocks-for-jocks science class the school offers online.
Amusingly, because I actually gave a damn about the Japanese classes, they sent me a letter asking me to join the honors society. :-)
It can be done and I've admired your persistence for a while. My own story doesn't have quite so many tragedies, but while midway through a degree, my mother's parent loan was denied two weeks before school was supposed to start. A month after traveling back out to school just to get my stuff in storage shipped home, they decided to cut her the check after all, far too late to do anything. $50k in debt and no real prospects, I got a small miracle in that somebody decided to take a chance on me. A couple of years later I was able to start at a different school. While simultaneously paying off the loans, making for some very... tight years. 8 Years after having to drop out, I had my degree and was debt free within a few months of graduating, would have graduated debt free but my mother passed the summer before my final year and I couldn't, quite, make the cash flow needed.
Nothing unusual with having to go back to school later in life. You have what you need, the persistence to see it through. You just need to break the string of bad luck.
StargazerA5
Posted by: StargazerA5 at Sat Sep 10 09:35:52 2011 (lZbWj)
2
The hurricanes you really have to worry about are ones with names that match leading figures from the Spanish Inquisition. Those strike with little warning, since no ever expects them...
Posted by: Siergen at Mon Aug 29 19:03:48 2011 (ORZOi)
3
Katia will turn out to be a fish storm, they think.
Posted by: Mitch H. at Wed Aug 31 09:15:25 2011 (jwKxK)
Well, we're still bewildered that we have power. No one in our immediate area aside from our neighborhood and an adjoining road does.
Most of the early part of today was spent cleaning up the yard.
This afternoon, I drove over to Newport News and later Virginia Beach to check on friends who weren't answering their phones...they are OK, modern landline phones don't work with no power.
Along the way I noted the damage, which consisted of a lot of blown down trees and missing signs.
Now, the storm lasted a LONG time here. It spawned tornadoes and its surge, which was abnormally high for storm of its intensity, came at the highest tide of the year. There was also a LOT of rain.
That..being...said...
As hurricanes go, this was a pretty gimp event.
This is Virginia, which happens to be in the coastal southeast. We are going to get hurricanes. I don't think that sustained hurricane force winds were actually recorded at ground level in Virginia. We actually endured a CAT 0.8. Such a storm ought not to have left just under a million people without power. It ought not to have collapsed a bridge. We wasted all that money on bailouts, and in the stimulus, and we didn't do jack for the actual infrastructure. Given the disruption and damage caused by this"hurricane by technicality", an actual CAT 4 or 5 storm would not have just left almost a million without power, it would have left nearly as many dead and shut down the whole state.
These were all lessons that ought to have been learned after Isabel. We've had 8 years.
It should be noted however, that there were some good points. The storm drains which had been such a colossal failure during Isabel and Floyd and contributed to so much flooding, seemed to work very well this time except in areas that were very low lying anyway...and physics comes into play there. So there was one civil engineering win.
In other good news, all that rain surely put out the fire Great Dismal Swamp so we don't...wait...what?...OH YOU ARE KIDDING ME!1!!
Grrr...Fires, earthquakes, storms...if there are suddenly swarms of bugs I'm gonna...
Oh good grief...
Bugnadoes!? In MY neighborhood?
They don't show up well on the Blackberry camera but that's how thick the bugs are right now.
Irene is Coming
It looks like flooding will continue to worsen in Chesapeake for a time, but aside from
severe thunderstorms, the possibility of tornadoes and the strange phenomenon of the wind being worse
in what should be the least dangerous quadrant the worst seems to be
over or us.
The same can't be said for the rest of the country. Remember, we were having a mild drought when these rains came, the Northeast has been soaked already. The huge rain on saturated ground and the possibility of an 8 foot storm surge and a high tide arrival is going to be a very rude awakening to Northeasterners. The storm is already reorganizing and strengthening a bit as I type this. Weather Nerd has more.
North Carolina and Virginia took a hit but those still in its path may well get the worst of it.
If you are northeast of here, this storm is NOT spent and it is coming toward you.
Irene's Parting Gifts
The storm is now offshore, but she held the worst waited for last. WNIS, which is broadcasting from Dominion Tower, is reporting the Elizabeth River is now topping the Norfolk seawall, financial district flooded. Dominion Tower parking garage is flooded.
Caller reports hip high water in Fox Hill in Hampton.
Water mains have broken in Norfolk.
UPDATE:Nags Head reports that Albermarle Sound is overflowing and breaching the barrier island west to east....this will sweep everything out to sea.
UPDATE: Governor McDonnell sez: 877,470 without power. 3 Deaths confirmed 1 in Richmond area. ALL major bridges and tunnels out of commission.
UPDATE:The storm is 30 miles offshore but the wind is the worse yet. House is shaking. Radio reports Tidewater Drive is impassable. 6 inches of water in back yard. Reports on radio indicate LOTS of flooding.
UPDATE: Wind sounds like thunder. Lights flickering. Sounds like branches are breaking. Bizarre that we get this now.
UPDATE: Radio says Midtown Tunnel not reopening. Great.
UPDATE: Radio says Richmond and Fredricksburg have a really large number of power outages.
21:41 UPDATE: The storm is more than 45 miles off shore and Naval Air Station Oceana STILL reports 69MPH wings in the "safe" quadrant. We've been getting the worst winds of the day since the storm passed offshore.
21:50 UPDATE: Radio Weather Dude says that the storm is strengthening as it passes over the water which is why we are getting more wind. There is a posibility that the Midtown Tunnel may open by Monday.
For what it's worth, I referenced you many times today at Duck U. Everybody was complaining quite loudly about how the flood was a disaster; I responded with "no, this is an annoyance. I have a friend who is right in the path of Hurricane Irene. THAT'S a disaster."
Glad you're doing okay so far...
Posted by: Wonderduck at Sat Aug 27 23:34:46 2011 (o45Mg)
The Portsmouth curfew was in effect as of 8 p.m. and was to be lifted at
8 a.m. Sunday. No person shall be on any public street between those
hours unless for an emergency or essential purpose or operation of a
business, the city said.
A Few Quick Pics
We had a break in the storm about an hour ago and as part of my overall policy of making bad decisions I ran out to move my car (which was being menaced by a steadily listing tree) and drove around the neighborhood for a few minutes.
15 -21 inches of rain is what they're saying.
Everything smells like rotting fish.
702,413 reported without power in VA. Our neighborhood is an anomaly that is not likely to last long.
The break in the storm is well and truly over. The winds are picking up rapidly and the rain is again coming down in sheets.
So you actually had the eye of the storm pass right over you, eh? Too bad the eye wall had already broken, or you'd have been able to see blue sky briefly.
I had heard 6-8 inches of rain predicted. 15-21 sounds like a hell of a ride. Gonna be a lot of flooding if it's really that much.
2
Actually no. The eyewall is approaching as I type this and will pass a bit to the east in about half an hour. The radio mentioned that there was a large pocket of dry air that caused everything to just stop for a few minutes.
I really needed to move my car anyway.
I can't believe we've kept power for this long.
Posted by: The Brickmuppet at Sat Aug 27 18:36:42 2011 (EJaOX)
Journalism
This should not be news but...In marked contrast to The Weather Channel, the local network affiliates and the local Talk Station (AM 790 WNIS) are doing a stellar job of reporting the situation. Dave Parker the Talk Host is a consummate professional.
Weather Nerd is doing a fine drama free coverage of this on a national level.
Tornadoes
2 tornadoes have touched down in Sandbridge, a lowlying area of Virginia Beach near the NC state line containing the northernmost of the sounds and barrier islands. A caller on the radio reports considerable damage. The area is in the no go zone, no responders will be sent till after the storm passes.
Tornado warnings a bit ago in Chesapeake, Portsmouth, Suffolk but they have been lifted.
Via 790AM WNIS: Brookridge Apts in Newport News has been stove by a tree. A child is reportedly pinned.
UPDATE: Chid is dead.
Winds are picking up substantially.
350,000 380,000 without power.
Caller on radio reports Blackwater River is flooding the town of Franklin which suffered so much in Floyd.
5 hours till maximum winds. It looks like the dead center will pass right over us. There is expected to be a 7 foot storm surge or greater and will
coincide with high tide.
Wind here is 15-25 knots. Weather Channel dude is on TV in nearby
VA Beach dramatically "staggering" against the gale.
Weather Channel meteorologists, the mimes of the 21st century.
Actual video of Weather Channel meteorologists.
Caller on the radio from Kill Devil Hills (which the Weather Channel reports devastated) reports terrible carnage amongst the islands pine cones. The storm is serious but not catastrophic. They really needed to stop overhyping the wind angle once it became clear it was not a major wind event. This will only cause people to ignore them in the future.
Note though that there IS rain...a LOT of rain; really impressive rain that has been remarkably steady for hours.
I do expect inland flooding to be terrible.
Irene's jaundiced eye should pass over in 5-7 hours, nearly coinciding with high tide. Coastal flooding is going to be as bad as Isabel or worse.
This is going to be bad enough without the winds,...
...or the weather mimes.
100,000+ without power already including the next neighborhood over. We'll loose it here soon enough.
I'm going to go get what may be my last shower for a few days.
Hobby Space News of the commercial space industry A Babe In The Universe Rather Eclectic Cosmology Encyclopedia Astronautica Superb spacecraft resource The Unwanted Blog Scott Lowther blogs about forgotten aerospace projects and sells amazingly informative articles on the same. Also, there are cats. Transterrestrial Musings Commentary on Infinity...and beyond! Colony WorldsSpace colonization news! The Alternate Energy Blog It's a blog about alternate energy (DUH!) Next Big Future Brian Wang: Tracking our progress to the FUTURE. Nuclear Green Charles Barton, who seems to be either a cool curmudgeon, or a rational hippy, talks about energy policy and the terrible environmental consequences of not going nuclear Energy From Thorium Focuses on the merits of thorium cycle nuclear reactors WizBang Current events commentary...with a wiz and a bang The Gates of Vienna Tenaciously studying a very old war The Anchoress insightful blogging, presumably from the catacombs Murdoc Online"Howling Mad Murdoc" has a millblog...golly! EaglespeakMaritime security matters Commander Salamander Fullbore blackshoe blogging! Belmont Club Richard Fernandez blogs on current events BaldilocksUnderstated and interesting blog on current events The Dissident Frogman French bi-lingual current events blog The "Moderate" VoiceI don't think that word means what they think it does....but this lefty blog is a worthy read nonetheless. Meryl Yourish News, Jews and Meryls' Views Classical Values Eric Scheie blogs about the culture war and its incompatibility with our republic. Jerry Pournell: Chaos ManorOne of Science fictions greats blogs on futurism, current events, technology and wisdom A Distant Soil The website of Colleen Dorans' superb fantasy comic, includes a blog focused on the comic industry, creator issues and human rights. John C. Wright The Sci-Fi/ Fantasy writer muses on a wide range of topics. Now Read This! The founder of the UK Comics Creators Guild blogs on comics past and present. The Rambling Rebuilder Charity, relief work, roleplaying games Rats NestThe Art and rantings of Vince Riley Gorilla Daze Allan Harvey, UK based cartoonist and comics historian has a comicophillic blog! Pulpjunkie Tim Driscoll reviews old movies, silents and talkies, classics and clunkers. Suburban Banshee Just like a suburban Leprechaun....but taller, more dangerous and a certified genius. Satharn's Musings Through TimeThe Crazy Catlady of The Barony of Tir Ysgithr アニ・ノート(Ani-Nouto) Thoughtful, curmudgeonly, otakuism that pulls no punches and suffers no fools. Chizumatic Stephen Den Beste analyzes anime...with a microscope, a slide rule and a tricorder. Wonderduck Anime, Formula One Racing, Sad Girls in Snow...Duck Triumphalism Beta Waffle What will likely be the most thoroughly tested waffle evah! Zoopraxiscope Too In this thrilling sequel to Zoopraxiscope, Don, Middle American Man of Mystery, keeps tabs on anime, orchids, and absurdities. Mahou Meido MeganekkoUbu blogs on Anime, computer games and other non-vital interests Twentysided More geekery than you can shake a stick at Shoplifting in the Marketplace of Ideas Sounds like Plaigarism...but isn't Ambient IronyAll Meenuvians Praise the lathe of the maker! Hail Pixy!!